Fearless Oscar Predictions 2026

Who ya got: “Sinners” and its record-setting 16 nominations or “One Battle After Another” and 13 nods?

There are other deserving nominees, to be sure, but these two films have dominated the movie year 2025 and much of Awards Season 2026. There is no reason to think it won’t continue come Oscar night.

Which is better? Wow. What day is it? Let’s just say we have extra love for the split in the Best Screenplay category this year, where they both can collect the hardware.

And what a great year for Horror! Don’t forget del Toro’s visionary “Frankenstein” nabbed 9 nominations, Amy Madigan’s Aunt Gladys gets recognition for “Weapons” and “The Ugly Stepsister,” Emilie Blichfeldt’s beautifully brutal debut, is up for the Best Makeup and Hairstyling award. All well deserved.

So let’s dig in:

Best picture

  • “Bugonia”
  • “F1”
  • “Frankenstein”
  • “Hamnet”
  • “Marty Supreme”
  • “One Battle After Another”
  • “The Secret Agent”
  • “Sentimental Value”
  • “Sinners”
  • “Train Dreams”

Should win: “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another”

Will win: “Sinners”

Best Actress

  • Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
  • Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
  • Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
  • Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
  • Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”

Should win/Will win: Buckley. Probably the surest bet this year.

Best Actor

  • Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
  • Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
  • Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
  • Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

Should win/Will win: Jordan

Best Supporting Actress

  • Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
  • Inga Ibsdotter LilIeaas, “Sentimental Value”
  • Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
  • Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
  • Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Should win: Mosaku

Will win: Madigan

Best Supporting Actor

  • Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
  • Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
  • Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
  • Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
  • Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”

Should win: Lindo – how does he not have an Oscar by now?

Will win: Penn*

*Hope disagrees. Her last shred of faith in humanity says Lindo will pull it out.

Director

  • Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
  • Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
  • Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
  • Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
  • Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”

Should win: PTA or Coogler

Will win: PTA

Original Song

  • “Golden” from “Kpop Demon Hunters”
  • “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”
  • “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”
  • “I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
  • “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”

Should win/Will win: “I Lied to You”

Original Score

  • “Bugonia,” Jerskin Fendrix
  • “Frankenstein,” Alexandre Desplate
  • “Hamnet,” Max Richter
  • “One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood
  • “Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson

Should win/Will win: Göransson – the integration of music in Sinners was masterful.

Animated Film

  • “Arco”
  • “Elio”
  • “KPop Demon Hunters”
  • “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
  • “Zootopia 2”

Should win/Will win: “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”

International Film

  • “The Secret Agent,” Brazil
  • “It Was Just an Accident,” France
  • “Sentimental Value,” Norway
  • “Sirât,” Spain
  • “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Tunisia

Should win/Will win: “Sentimental Value” in a category so stacked that neither “No Other Choice” or “The President’s Cake” could crack it.

Documentary Feature

  • “The Perfect Neighbor”
  • “The Alabama Solution”
  • “Come See Me in the Good Light”
  • “Cutting Through Rocks”
  • “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”

Should win/Will win: “The Perfect Neighbor

Casting

  • “Hamnet”
  • “Marty Supreme”
  • “One Battle After Another”
  • “The Secret Agent”
  • “Sinners”

Should win: “Sinners” or “OBAA”

Will win: “OBAA”

Best Sound

  • “F1”
  • “Frankenstein”
  • “One Battle after Another”
  • “Sinners”
  • “Sirāt”

Should win: “Sirāt”

Will win: “F1”

Cinematography

  • “Frankenstein”
  • “Marty Supreme”
  • “One Battle After Another”
  • “Sinners”
  • “Train Dreams”

Should win/Will win: “Train Dreams” in another category brimming with excellence.

Original Screenplay

  • “Blue Moon,” Robert Kaplow
  • “It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi, with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
  • “Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
  • “Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
  • “Sinners,” Ryan Coogler

Should win/Will win: Coogler

Adapted Screenplay

  • “Bugonia”; Will Tracy
  • “Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro
  • “Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
  • “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
  • “Train Dreams,” Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar

Should win/Will win: PTA

Live Action Short Film

  • “Butcher’s Stain”
  • “A Friend of Dorothy”
  • “Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
  • “The Singers”
  • “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Should win/Will win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Animated Short Film

  • “Butterfly”
  • “Forevergreen”
  • “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
  • “Retirement Plan”
  • “The Three Sisters”

Should win: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”

Will win: “Butterfly”

Visual Effects

  • “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
  • “F1″
  • “Jurassic World Rebirth”
  • “The Lost Bus”
  • “Sinners”

Should win/Will win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Production Design

  • “Frankenstein”
  • “Hamnet”
  • “Marty Supreme”
  • “One Battle After Another”
  • “Sinners”

Should win/Will win: “Frankenstein”

Film Editing

  • “F1”
  • “Marty Supreme”
  • “One Battle After Another”
  • “Sentimental Value”
  • “Sinners”

Should win/Will win: “F1”

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • “Frankenstein”
  • “Kokuho”
  • “Sinners”
  • “The Smashing Machine”
  • “The Ugly Stepsister”

Should win/Will win: “Frankenstein”

Costume Design

  • “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
  • “Frankenstein”
  • “Hamnet”
  • “Marty Supreme”
  • “Sinners”

Should win/Will win: “Sinners”

The 98th Academy Awards will take place March 15th, 2026.

The Camera Never Lies

Bodycam

by George Wolf

Take the frenetic desperation of The Blair Witch Project‘s final minutes, move it to a more urban battleground and layer it with plenty of first-person shooter sequences, and you’re in the ballpark of Bodycam, director Brandon Christensen’s shaky cam shakedown of two cops and one very bad choice.

Officer Bryce (Sean Rogerson) and officer Jackson (Jamie M. Callica) respond to a domestic dispute, and we follow along thanks to their bodycams. The house is dark and plenty creepy, and things escalate to the point of a fatal shooting. The possible fallout spurs Bryce to panic.

He has too much to lose for this situation to go public and convinces Jackson to help him cover up what happened. But when a techie colleague tries to scrub the cam footage, she notices some strange graffiti on the wall, and realizes it’s already too late to keep the killing a secret.

At least from certain, very scary people.

Uh oh. Bryce and Jackson are in for a bad time.

Christensen (Night of the Reaper, Z, Superhost, The Puppetman), co-writing again with his brother Ryan, doesn’t waste any time getting down to nasty business. And once the 75-minute film hits the midway point, the bloody fun is amped up a notch or three as the two cops come to grips with the promise of retribution for their actions.

“Why couldn’t you have done the right thing?”

In today’s climate, that question from one cop to another carries some serious weight. And though the implications are clear, Christensen is more committed to the repercussions.

Bodycam dishes them out in frenzied, crowd-pleasing glory.

The Rain in Spain

Heel

by Hope Madden

Few people who watched the Netflix series Adolescence would describe it as darkly comical.

And yet, Adolescence co-creator and co-star Stephen Graham lends his considerable talent to another look at the troubling behavior of young white men in Jan Komasa’s Heel.

Graham plays Chris, a well-intentioned family man. Anson Boon is Tommy. One morning, after a night of hard debauchery, Tommy wakes up in chains in Chris’s basement.

From there, Komasa’s film, written by Bartek Bartosik and Naqqash Khalid, could become something truly horrifying. Instead, it reimagines The Clockwork Orange by way of My Fair Lady.

There’s obviously something terribly wrong with Chris, his wife Kathryn (Andrea Riseborough), and probably their young son Jonathan (Kit Rakusen). But they don’t think so. Indeed, they’re so convinced of their benign purposes that the family hires a part time maid (Monika Frajczyk), even though there’s a human being chained up just off the laundry room.

Of course, during the interview, Chris does ask if Katrina has any distinguishing marks. That could be a red flag.

The performances across the board are marvelous. Certainly, we’ve come to expect nuanced, even surprising turns from both Grahan and Riseborough. But it’s Boon who really impresses. His Eliza Doolittle arc is fantastic and frustratingly believable.

Komasa plays with your expectations and manipulates your emotions. It’s really hard to root for the kid in the cellar, and it’s often a little tough to dislike this broken family, although there is clearly something very cracked and likely dangerous about them.

The sharp script never overplays its themes. Heel keeps you guessing, keeps you fascinated, and sometimes has you almost breathless. It’s also quite funny and touching.

The longer you watch, the more provocative Heel becomes. Even if you’re furious by film’s end, it’s hard to deny its power.

Violent Femme

The Bride!

by Hope Madden

One part Metropolis, one part Bonnie & Clyde, just a touch of Bride of Frankenstein and yet somehow entirely writer/director Maggie Gyllenhaal’s own, The Bride! deserves that exclamation point.

Jessie Buckley is a force of nature in a dual role—sort of a triple role, really: an unhappy Chicago gangster’s moll; Mary Shelley, silenced far too soon; and a monster, chaotic, unruly, unburdened by memory and guided by peculiar fury.

The likeliest lock for Oscar in the 2026 race for her breathtaking turn in Hamnet, Buckley is perfectly paired with Christian Bale (that hack!), a unique image of Frankenstein’s monster. He is tender, lonesome, adoring, and very anxious. Frank has a serious anxiety issue, which is mainly calmed by watching his favorite movie star, the song and dance man Ronnie Reed (Jake Gyllenhaal).

To watch Buckley and Bale, two masters of their craft, work off each other is a treat, each of them tearing through Gyllenhaal’s inspired and intelligent script with dark joy.

The leads are surrounded with memorable, noir-esque characters: Annette Bening as our mad scientist, Peter Sarsgaard as the gumshoe with some secrets, Penélope Cruz as the brains behind the investigation, John Magaro as the spineless gangster.

Great as they are, and they all are, the star here is Maggie Gyllenhaal. Her tale is hyperliterate with surreal flourishes, dazzlingly filmed, constantly surprising and yet charmingly inevitable, and fueled by a glorious, contagious rage.

There are dance sequences (an absolute blast) and shoot outs, a deep vein of dark humor, opportunities for redemption, and delightful easter eggs. (Ida’s nemesis is a gangster named Lupino; silver screen star Ida Lupino turned to directing, and one of her most cynical and impressive efforts was a 1963 episode of the TV show Thriller called “The Bride Who Died Twice.”)

The Bride! delights with an anarchic energy, but its underlying plot is tight, its characters clearly drawn and beautifully performed, and its aesthetic wondrous. In just her second feature, after 2021’s sublime The Lost Daughter, Gyllenhaal’s cemented her spot as one of the most exciting filmmakers working.

Idol Hands

Billy Idol Should Be Dead

by George Wolf

As great as Robert Patrick was in Terminator 2, Billy Idol would have made a pretty rad T-1000.

Billy was indeed up for the part, and a glimpse of his screen test with James Cameron is just one of the archival delights in Billy Idol Should Be Dead, a new doc that traces his life of curled lips, spiked hair and legendary rock god excess.

Adding plenty of never-before-seen footage to many of the sentiments from Billy’s 2014 memoir, director Jonas Åkerlund does a great job taking us inside young William Broad’s English upbringing and the Seventies punk scene that launched the Billy Idol persona and his early bands, Chelsea and Generation X.

Billy is refreshingly honest and self-reflective in the new interview footage, as Åkerlund often layers it with classic clips from the Eighties that accentuate how committed Idol was to the “sex, drugs and rock-n-roll” lifestyle.

But once the two-hour doc hits the halfway point, the career overview starts to suffer from a drifting focus. Billy’s longtime personal relationship with girlfriend Perri Lister gets plenty of scrutiny, while musical partner Steve Stevens is barely mentioned. Åkerlund (Lords of Chaos, Metallica Saved My Life) juggles a shifting timeline, animated segments, a black and white aesthetic and celebrity commentary (Miley Cyrus, Pete Townshend, etc.) with an approach that seems random. The film’s vision never feels fully formed, especially up against the heels of Morgan Neville’s expertly crafted Paul McCartney doc, Man on the Run.

And strangely, despite Åkerlund’s extensive experience in music videos, Idol’s catalog isn’t mined as deeply as it could be, and several chances to anchor some passages with more Idol hits are left unexplored.

The film might not reach the raw emotional honesty of docs such as Steve! (Martin) or Pee Wee as Himself, but for Billy Idol fans, there is plenty here to satisfy. From early clubs to MTV glory, from the gnarly scars of a motorcycle wreck to embracing family and moments as a doting grandfather, Billy Idol Should Be Dead does make you feel like you know a rock legend just a little bit better.

Leave It to Beaver

Hoppers

by Hope Madden

Funny, relevant, overstuffed and a little too busy, Pixar’s latest, Hoppers, throws a lot at you.

Mabel (Piper Curda) has always been a handful. In the film’s opening act, after she gets caught trying to break every elementary school classroom animal out of captivity, her frustrated mother drops her off with her grandmother. Grandma Tanaka (Karen Huie) introduces Mabel to the calming effect of nature. As they age together, the two sit on a rock by the glade behind Granny’s, learning to be silent and feel a part of something bigger.

Then the mayor, Jerry (Jon Hamm), decides to bulldoze the glade to extend the city’s beltway, shortening commutes by 4 minutes! Through a series of events both clever and complicated, Mabel hijacks a research experiment, avatars her way into the robotic body of a beaver, infiltrates the local wildlife community, learns more than any human has ever learned about their hierarchy, and just about gets Jerry squished.

Hamm is perfect as Mabel’s foil, but the entire cast is excellent. From smaller supporting turns (Meryl Streep, Vanessa Bayer, and Isiah Whitlock, Jr. in one of his final roles) to larger roles (Bobby Moynihan, Dave Franco, Kathy Najimy), each voice brings life and wit to Pixar’s characteristically enthralling animation.

Co-writer/director Daniel Chong’s script, co-written with Jesse Andrews (Elio, Luca, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl), is warm, forgiving and quite funny. Pixar has a knack with movies about a world unknown, even forbidden, to humans. Hoppers plays with that idea, and the thrill of being part of the animal world offers contagious joy.

It’s also an honestly emotional film, and Curda makes an excellent anchor for that emotion.

The film’s one big drawback is that it simply tries to do too much. At an hour and 45 minutes, it feels slightly longer than necessary, but more than anything, it is very complicated. Had Chong pruned some of the human world complexities, favoring instead the merry time spent in the surprising world of the animals, his film might find broader appeal. As is, it will delight older children and adults, although the littlest viewers may struggle to keep up.

Fright Club: Skeletons in the Closet, 2026

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! The time when we celebrate the bad horror lurking in Oscar nominees’ closets. Because we have a lot of return nominees, we have some overlap with earlier years. But there is also fresh blood…

5. Amy Madigan, Antlers (2021)

Scott Cooper reimagines the Wendigo legend to lead us through a dour metaphor full of familiar genre tropes and leave us with a brutal, great-looking, well-acted lecture.

Antlers is not a terrible film. But it has at least one incredibly stupid scene, and that scene stars the otherwise incredible Amy Madigan. She plays a school principal who stops at a student’s home to check on him and then–in a film that otherwise mainly avoids those “what a stupid decision” horror cliches—makes every stupid decision an educated professional could make. There is nothing believable about one step of it, however hard the talented veteran tries. It it so dumb that our friends Tyrone and Vernell abandoned the good characters and joined “Team Creature.”

4. Renate Reinsve: Dark Woods II/Villmark Asylum (2015)

Pål Øie followed up his surprise hit Villmark – a cabin in the woods horror – with this odd sequel set in the high hills above those woods, where an old hospital used after WWII is being prepared for destruction.

Øie lifts most of his story from Brad Anderson’s far superior Session 9, mixing in some Nazi style experimentation and creatures. It’s not a terrible movie, and characteristically, Renate Reinsve, gives a strong performance. There are some real scares, too, and the cast on the whole is solid. The mythology makes little to no sense, the leaps in logic are impressive, and in the end, it’s not memorable outside the early career work of one of the most talented actors working today.

3. Stellan Skarsgård: Deep Blue Sea (1999)

Skarsgård’s made his fair share of horror. We considered both of his Exorcist movies for this list, but since they’re basically the same movie, which too choose?

Deep Blue Sea is a fun B-movie creature feature. It’s mindless, violent, action packed, and Skarsgård gets one of the most ludicrous deaths in horror.

2. Benicio del Toro: The Wolfman (2010)

We had such hopes for this one when it came out. That cast! Benicio Del Toro, Anthony Hopkins, Hugo Weaving, Emily Blunt!

Good God, was it awful. If you can look past the idea that Hopkins and Del Toro could be father and son, look past the insipid plot, look past Hopkins’s hamminess or del Toro’s disinterest, you cannot look past the heinous FX. But Blunt handles herself really, really well.

1.  Leonardo DiCaprio: Critters 3 (1991)

Long before Django UnchainedTitanic, or even What’s Eating Gilbert Grape, a barely pubescent Leo DiCaprio donned a day-glow t-shirt and a pre-teen scowl to battle Gremlin rip-offs in Critters 3.

They are furry, toothy, ravenous beasts from outer space and, until episode 3, they were content to terrify rural folk. But now they’re in the big city, and (in a clear rip off of the not-quite-as-terrible film Troll), they are pillaging a single apartment building and terrifying all those trapped inside. It’s a comedy, really, the kind with farting furballs and dunderheaded people. Which is to say, one that’s not particularly funny.

Serving up the same derivative comedy/horror pap you can find in one out of every three films made that decade, Critters 3 has a lot of hair in scrunchies, oversized blouses belted over colorful leggings, stereotypes, and actors on their careers’ last legs. And Leonardo DiCaprio, which will forever be the only reason this movie was released to DVD.

Screening Room: Scream 7, Pillion, The President’s Cake & More!

Hope and George review this week’s new releases: Scream 7, Pillion, The President’s Cake, Dreams, Dolly, Crazy Old Lady, PLUS movie news and notes from The Schlocketeer Daniel Baldwin!

Knife Finds a Way

Scream 7

by Hope Madden and George Wolf

There’s a lot to be said for the Scream franchise. Sure, Wes Craven’s 1996 iconic original delivered the shot of adrenaline needed to reimagine and reinvigorate the horror genre. But the fact is that, seven episodes in, the series doesn’t have a lot to be embarrassed by.

In case any unexpected callers ask, there are 12 Friday the 13th films, 8 Nightmare on Elm Street films (yes, we are counting the 2010 abomination), 9 Texas Chainsaw Massacre films, 12 Hellraisers, and 13 Halloweens in all. Hell, there are 8 Leprechaun films. And, in every case, most of the individual sequels are terrible. Some of them unwatchable. But not Scream.

Sure, Scream 3 was a step backward. Scream 4 was less beloved than it should have been. Scream 5 was a nice comeback, then 6 was a bit of a letdown. Still, seven episodes and we have no real stinkers. Including Scream 7, co-written and directed by the franchise’s original scribe, Kevin Williamson.

The storyline has veered back, after Melissa Barrera was fired, which prompted Jenna Ortega to quit. So, naturally, the property finally found the money to pay Neve Campbell to come back, and good thing they did. When Ghostface tracks Sidney Prescott down to the smalltown where she’s raising her three kids with husband/police chief Mark Evans (Joel McHale), she needs to keep her own history from echoing through her teenage daughter Tatum’s (Isabel May) life.  

Episode Seven is all about nostalgia, and a reminder of the years we all have invested. You’ll see plenty of familiar faces, including everyone’s favorite from the original film. There is a nicely organic reason for this, but the film’s core is about Sidney’s strained relationship with her daughter. That’s a weaker thread.

Williamson sells the new setting well enough, and with some understatement that feels refreshing. What isn’t subtle is the frayed nature of the mother/daughter dynamic, fueled by dialog and drama that’s forced and unearned.

The younger cast (including McKenna Grace, Michelle Randolph, Asa German, Celeste O’Connor and Sam Rechner), while perfectly talented, are slighted in terms of plot and character development. They only get a passing chance to school us on some new rules of the game, and benefit from the satisfying staging of just one standout kill.

The grownup side of the story is solid. It’s still a kick to see Campbell’s Sid and Courteney Cox’s Gale Weathers doing their thing. There is still some teenage dumbassery involved, but this Scream is leaning into its age more than ever.

It’s less risky, and certainly after all this time, less groundbreaking. But Scream 7 is also less silly. Like a proud parent reminding the kids they can always come home, Williamson’s return gives the franchise some bloody comfort food to chew on.

Hope Madden and George Wolf … get it?